洪水影响预报和风险预警理念与业务实践   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

刘志雨 《水文》2020,40(1):1-6

我国是世界上洪涝灾害频繁而严重的国家之一,洪水预报预警是防汛减灾工作中重要的非工程措施和洪水防御工作的耳目和参谋。从水文行业的视角,回顾了近年来我国洪水预报预警技术与业务进展,分析了当前洪水预报预警工作面临的新形势和新要求,对比国内外同类行业发展查找了存在的差距,阐述了洪水影响预报和风险预警的定义和理念,从顶层对基于影响预报和风险预警的新一代洪水预报预警系统("国家洪水预报预警系统")总体框架进行了研究和设计,一些关键技术成果在大范围洪水早期预警业务实践中得到了探索应用,取得了较好的效果。  相似文献   

经济地理学制度理论的发展与建构的重要方向     

傅沂  赵子奇 《热带地理》2019,39(5):711-720

在中国制度差异显著与目前区域发展不平衡不充分的现实下,经济地理学与制度相结合的研究显得尤为必要。通过系统地梳理经济地理学与制度的关系发现,经济地理学与制度在历史上存在先分离后融合的情况,并且目前经济地理学与制度研究结合态势不容乐观,制度研究在本体论、方法论、时间维度、空间尺度、研究方法等方面仍然存在不足。通过文献梳理与理论分析,认为经济地理学的制度理论应基于演化经济地理学进行建构,并提出了建构的方向：1）以系统论、层级观为指导,注重构建制度的层级结构;2）以反还原论为基础,寻求方法论的突破;3）借助演化的思想与路径依赖理论,强调时间在制度系统中的作用;4）加强对各空间尺度的制度研究;5）注重工具方法的借鉴与创新。  相似文献   

Location and probability of shoal margin collapses in a sandy estuary          下载免费PDF全文

Wout M. van Dijk  Dick R. Mastbergen  Geeralt A. van den Ham  Jasper R. F. W. Leuven  Maarten G. Kleinhans 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(11):2342-2357

Channel bank failure, and collapses of shoal margins and beaches due to flow slides, have been recorded in Dutch estuaries for the past 200 years but have hardly been recognized elsewhere. Current predictions lack forecasting capabilities, because they were validated and calibrated for historic data of cross‐sections in specific systems, allowing local hindcast rather than location and probability forecasting. The objectives of this study were to investigate where on shoal margins collapses typically occur and what shoal margin collapse geometries and volumes are, such that we can predict their occurrence. We identified shoal margin collapses, generally completely submerged, from bathymetry data by analyzing digital elevation models of difference of the Western Scheldt for the period 1959–2015. We used the bathymetry data to determine the conditions for occurrence, specifically to obtain slope height and angle, and applied these variables in a shoal margin collapse predictor. We found 299 collapses along 300 km of shoal margin boundaries over 56 years, meaning that more than five collapses occur on average per year. The average shoal margin collapse body is well approximated by a 1/3 ellipsoid shape, covers on average an area of 34 000 m² and has an average volume of 100 000 m³. Shoal margin collapses occur mainly at locations where shoals take up a proportionally larger area than average in the cross‐section of the entire estuary, and occur most frequently where lateral shoal margin displacement is low. A receiver operating characteristic curve shows that the forecasting method predicts the shoal margin collapse location well. We conclude that the locations of the shoal margin collapses are well predicted by the variation in conditions of the relative slope height and angle within the Western Scheldt, and likely locations are at laterally relatively stable shoal margins. This provides hypotheses aiding the recognition of these features in sandy estuaries worldwide. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Validation of the SCEC Broadband Platform simulations for tall building risk assessments considering spectral shape and duration of the ground motion     

Nenad Bijelić  Ting Lin  Greg G. Deierlein 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(11):2233-2251

Earthquake simulation technologies are advancing to the stage of enabling realistic simulations of past earthquakes as well as characterizations of more extreme events, thus holding promise of yielding novel insights and data for earthquake engineering. With the goal of developing confidence in the engineering applications of simulated ground motions, this paper focuses on validation of simulations for response history analysis through comparative assessments of building performance obtained using sets of recorded and simulated motions. Simulated ground motions of past earthquakes, obtained through a larger validation study of the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Platform, are used for the case study. Two tall buildings, a 20‐story concrete frame and a 42‐story concrete core wall building, are analyzed under comparable sets of simulated and recorded motions at increasing levels of ground motion intensity, up to structural collapse, to check for statistically significant differences between the responses to simulated and recorded motions. Spectral shape and significant duration are explicitly considered when selecting ground motions. Considered demands include story drift ratios, floor accelerations, and collapse response. These comparisons not only yield similar results in most cases but also reveal instances where certain simulated ground motions can result in biased responses. The source of bias is traced to differences in correlations of spectral values in some of the stochastic ground motion simulations. When the differences in correlations are removed, simulated and recorded motions yield comparable results. This study highlights the utility of physics‐based simulations, and particularly the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Platform as a useful tool for engineering applications.  相似文献   

Spatio‐temporal tracer variability in the glacier melt end‐member — How does it affect hydrograph separation results?          下载免费PDF全文

Jan Schmieder  Jakob Garvelmann  Thomas Marke  Ulrich Strasser 《水文研究》2018,32(12):1828-1843

Geochemical and isotopic tracers were often used in mixing models to estimate glacier melt contributions to streamflow, whereas the spatio‐temporal variability in the glacier melt tracer signature and its influence on tracer‐based hydrograph separation results received less attention. We present novel tracer data from a high‐elevation catchment (17 km², glacierized area: 34%) in the Oetztal Alps (Austria) and investigated the spatial, as well as the subdaily to monthly tracer variability of supraglacial meltwater and the temporal tracer variability of winter baseflow to infer groundwater dynamics. The streamflow tracer variability during winter baseflow conditions was small, and the glacier melt tracer variation was higher, especially at the end of the ablation period. We applied a three‐component mixing model with electrical conductivity and oxygen‐18. Hydrograph separation (groundwater, glacier melt, and rain) was performed for 6 single glacier melt‐induced days (i.e., 6 events) during the ablation period 2016 (July to September). Median fractions (±uncertainty) of groundwater, glacier melt, and rain for the events were estimated at 49±2%, 35±11%, and 16±11%, respectively. Minimum and maximum glacier melt fractions at the subdaily scale ranged between 2±5% and 76±11%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that the intraseasonal glacier melt tracer variability had a marked effect on the estimated glacier melt contribution during events with large glacier melt fractions of streamflow. Intra‐daily and spatial variation of the glacier melt tracer signature played a negligible role in applying the mixing model. The results of this study (a) show the necessity to apply a multiple sampling approach in order to characterize the glacier melt end‐member and (b) reveal the importance of groundwater and rainfall–runoff dynamics in catchments with a glacial flow regime.  相似文献   

圆形数值波浪水池斜向和多向入射波浪模拟研究     

任兴月  陶军  彭伟 《海洋工程》2018,36(4):78-87

为了研究斜向入射波浪,基于三维不可压缩两相流模型,开发了一套圆形数值波浪水池数值模型。在圆形波浪水池中,通过源项造波法成功生成了任意入射方向的波浪,并且利用人工摩擦项模拟阻尼区以数值耗散反射波浪。模型基于嵌入式多块网格体系,采用FVM法(finite volume method)离散Navier-Stokes方程,VOF法(volume of fluid)追踪自由水面。试验结果表明,斜向入射波浪的模拟结果与理论值基本一致,圆形波浪水池在模拟斜向入射波浪时,有效区域的面积较传统波浪水池显著增大,而且有效区域受波浪入射角度的影响也较小。同时,通过叠加多列斜向入射波浪,模拟出了多向交叉波列,并通过与理论结果对比,发现其具有较高的精度。  相似文献   

A multidirectional conditional spectrum     

《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(4):945-965

This paper presents a procedure to generate multidirectional conditional spectra (MDCS) that allow for the characterisation of seismic demands at different angles of incidence. Being conditional on a particular period and its direction of maximum response, it is considered to be a natural evolution of the conditional spectrum to account for the effects of directionality, that is, the variation of seismic demands as a function of the angle of incidence of ground motions, which can have a significant effect on the performance of different kinds of structures. The three main components needed for the generation of MDCS are explained in detail. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted using different sampling methods to assess the effects of incorporating the correlation between demands at different orientations for the same oscillator period, and a novel correlation model is proposed for this purpose. The statistical characteristics of MDCS, their relation with the conditional spectrum, the advantages of the MDCS over previous definitions of orientation‐specific spectra, and prospective future developments are discussed.  相似文献   

Census survey approach to quantifying īnanga spawning habitat for conservation and management     

Shane Orchard  Michael J. Hickford 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2018,52(2):284-294

Here, we describe a methodology for quantifying the spawning habitat of īnanga (Galaxias maculatus), a protected native fish species. Our approach is demonstrated with a survey of the Heathcote/ōpāwaho following the Canterbury earthquakes that produced unexpected findings. Spawning habitat was detected over a 2.5?km reach and the area occupied by spawning sites (75m²) was much larger than in previous records (ca.?21m²). Sites dominated by the invasive Phalaris arundinaceae were found to support high egg numbers. Spawning has not previously been recorded on this species and it is identified in the literature as a threat to spawning habitat. Considerable spatio-temporal variation was also detected in the location of spawning sites and pattern of egg production. Together, these aspects illustrate the need for a comprehensive survey methodology to reliably quantify spawning habitat. The Heathcote/ōpāwaho example shows the utility of our census approach for achieving this, and supporting habitat conservation objectives.  相似文献   

基于高斯两步移动搜寻法的村镇避难场所可达性研究     

但文羽  肖映辉  胡周灵  詹庆明 《地球信息科学学报》2018,20(10):1412-1421

避难场所可达性是指避难场所与受灾居民之间的通达性,即灾害发生时,避难人员通过避难疏散通道到达避难场所的难易程度,是评价避难场所布局合理性的重要指标。本研究结合高斯两步移动搜寻法和网络分析法,从供需双向出发对村镇地区避难场所进行可达性分析。2种方法的结合,既充分考虑了需求点与设施点的相互作用,又充分考虑了设施点的吸引力随距离的衰减关系,并基于实际道路,以步行疏散时间作为搜索半径,降低了传统研究中因忽略供需间相互作用及实际距离而引起的可达性结果的误差。最后,以神农架松柏镇区为例,验证该方法的实际应用价值。结果表明,该方法能够有效测定村镇地区避难场所的空间可达性,同时,基于GIS软件可以直观地揭示研究区域内避难场所可达性空间分布差异。该方法可为制定科学的村镇防灾减灾规划提供方法支持。  相似文献   

2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震前中期和短期预测依据与启示     

宋治平  薛艳  马亚伟  宋春燕  张小涛  晏锐  孟令媛  闫伟  苑争一 《中国地震》2020,36(3):407-416

2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震发生在2020年度全国地震危险区内，震前作出了较好的中期（年度）和短期（月尺度和周尺度）预测，是少有的地球物理观测能力较低地区的强震前中期和短临预测较好震例。本文梳理了中期和短期预测的主要依据及其预测效能，研究表明，震前中期异常主要有流动地磁、多方法组合、5.0级地震平静打破、6.0级地震的准周期活动等；短期异常有4.0级地震活动图像、中源地震影响、于田垂直摆倾斜EW、于田GNSS基准站EW位移、和田GNSS基准站EW位移等。在总结震前分析预测过程的基础上，提出针对地球物理观测密度低地区的地震危险区论证和短临跟踪的建议，为该类地区的地震危险区判定及跟踪工作提供宝贵经验。  相似文献